Sunday, December 15, 2024

The Future of Syria



Yesterday a conference was held in Aqaba in Jordan to determine the future of Syria. It was attended by representatives of other countries in the region, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Turkey, as well as a representative of the European Union and the United States. 

At the subsequent press conference, the stress was laid on the importance of the stability of Syria because the stability of the whole region depends upon that. Syria has always been the lynchpin for regional stability. Other parameters expressed were the territorial integrity of Syria, inclusive government, guaranteeing the rights of the monitories of which there are many in Syria. In Syria until now the rights of all minorities were enshrined in the constitution so all they need to do is maintain the status quo.

Each country representative, mainly foreign ministers, spoke. Another aspect which they said was paramount was to ensure that no terrorist groups were active in the country. If they are serious about that, what it means in practice is that all the factions which have now claimed power should be expelled because they are all terrorist organisations. 

Sometimes I am amazed at the hypocrisy of politicians. Territorial integrity is a fundamental question and yet, as they spoke, Turkey was backing a rebel group in the north-west of the country combatting the Kurdish forces backed by the US in the north- east. Talk about speaking out of both sides of the mouth!

The EU High Representative for Syria, still wet behind the ears and smiling like a Cheshire cat because this is probably the most high profile foreign assignment of her career, stressed the need for “accountability”. None of the regional representatives mentioned this topic because they know what it means – a bloodbath – but Ms Kallas would appear not to have a clue and was operating from the usual EU position of occupying the “moral high ground”.

The US was not present at the joint press conference. Antony Blinken held his own private press conference accompanied by two US flags, one on either side. Why did he do this? Quite simple. He did not want to be associated with the condemnation of ongoing Israeli expansionism, bombing Damascus and occupying ever more territory. Surely the most powerful man in the US is Benjamin Netanyahu!

If there is this deep and highly public divide at this early stage, what hope is there for Syria? The words were there, but are the intentions coherent with the words? Or is it all talk? Will they be able to walk the talk? The other Arab countries of the region are only too well aware of the consequences for their own countries if Syria dissolves into chaos. Turkey has its own agenda as does the US and the EU is a vassal state. Time will tell…

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

“They parted my garments among them, and upon my vesture did they cast lots."

 “They parted my garments among them, and upon my vesture did they cast lots."


This is exactly what is happening now in Syria:

Israel has already taken the Golan Height and Mount Hermon and is advancing on Damascus to fulfil the desires of the finance minister Smotrich and his extreme right-wing Zionist supporters as part of the push for the  “Greater Israel”; 
Turkey holds the northwest of the country where it had been supporting the terrorists there;
The Kurds, supported by the US, want the northeast and 
the US installed its bases in the east of the country years ago and has no intention of leaving.

The mainstream media in the West is making much of this “liberation” and the joyous “celebrations” of the population. Let us remember that at the end of any war a large swathe of the population hails the victors not out of conviction but to ingratiate themselves or save their own hide.

Just in case anyone is labouring under some illusion, we shall take a look at who is poised to rule the country now.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the largest of the terrorist groups which have been active in the country.  This group was formed in 2011 as part of the misnamed “Arab Spring” to fight in the equally misnamed Syrian “civil war” where the combatants were imported from Libya, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and many other places.

HTS was formerly known as Jabhat Fateh al-Nusra (Does that ring a bell?). Then it mutated into Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. It is a group of allied factions including Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jabhat Ansar al-Din and Jaysh al-Sunna.

Jabhat al-Nusra was formed in 2012 by ISIL (ISIS) (Remember them?) but split away a year later declaring its allegiance to al-Qaeda (Sounds familiar?) They later cut their ties with al-Qaeda and in 2017 joined up with other factions to rebrand as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

They held sway in the area of Idlib, financing their activities from the resources of the area, including oil. The hands and money of outside foreign powers provided great support.

These are the hands on which Syria‘s fate now depends.