THE COUNTRY

THE COUNTRY


Modern Syria is only a fraction of the Ottoman province of Syria which included present-day Jordan, Lebanon and Israel.  After the first World War the Sykes-Picot Agreement split Greater Syria up into two parts: most of modern Syria and Lebanon came under the French mandate whereas the remainder plus Iraq came under the British mandate. The Balfour Declaration leading to the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 laid the foundations for the conflict which still affects the whole of the Middle East, aggravated today by Israel’s relentless immigration and settlement policy which brings in radical immigrants with a ghetto mentality, largely from Eastern Europe but also from the US and elsewhere, who form the basis of the “frontier” zones.

There was a strong nationalist movement in Syria but it remained powerless in the face of European opposition and, although Syria was declared independent in 1941, it was not until 1946 that the country gained full sovereignty.  Independence brought instability until 1970 when the president, Hafez al-Assad, came to power.  President Assad, who is from the north of the country, is an Alawite, and it was his wish to have a secular constitution, but the strength of feeling of the sunni majority forced him to enshrine Islam as the official state religion, and to specify that the presidency of the country could only be held by a Moslem. This forced president Assad to obtain a fatwa or religious ruling from a religious court in Lebanon stating that the Alawites are a legitimate sect of Sh’ia Islam.

Although nominally a democratic republic, in practice, the president is the ultimate decision-maker, and no decisions of any importance are taken without his knowledge and consent. The president is surrounded by a group of loyal men who enjoy his confidence and trust. In the 1980s opposition to the regime and also to the pre-eminence of the Alawites in Syrian society led to uprisings spearheaded by the Moslem Brotherhood.  The US, Israel and Iraq were also accused of having a hand in these revolts.The opposition was severely quelled with aerial bombings in many cities, including Hama, an Isma’ili stronghold.   The key positions are occupied mainly by fellow Alawites, although in recent years the circle has been widened to include more Sunnis and even some Christians.

What will happen when President Assad dies?  This is the big question.  The succession seemed to be assured, the presidents’s eldest son being groomed to take over, but Fate put paid to these plans when he was killed in a traffic accident near the airport.  The younger son is now being prepared to take over but, from all appearances, he would seem not to have the charismatic favour of his elder brother.  Although most people seem not to be aware of it or even to think about it very much - at least they do not express any concern - the future of Syria hangs by a thread and will depend to a large extent on how things develop over the next few years.

In economic terms Syria has belonged to the socialist block since 1958 with state controlled enterprises and a planned economy.  With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the hectic scramble of eastern bloc countries to join the mainstream of capitalism, Syria was left with a big problem to solve.  If they were to jump head first into a capitalist system, the chances were that the country would suffer the same consequences as Egypt which opted for this course with the inherent danger of Islamic extremist groups growing in membership as unemployment took a hold on society.  The route chosen by Syria was gradual adaptation to the capitalist model.  This has led to a hybrid system where private enterprise is being allowed to operate (and indeed flourish) in certain sectors and in certain hands alongside state controlled enterprises and a controlled exchange rate system where there is only one official bank.  The restrictions in the banking sector and import controls provide a perfect breeding ground for corruption and rackets of every kind.

State-run enterprises are notorious everywhere for their inefficiency, waste, lack of management skills and worker complacency. Any exceptions to this state of affairs are only the exceptions to prove the rule. Syria is no exception with the result that factories employ far too many people for the workload and complacency is the order of the day. The official policy is that of import substitution and, from all that we have seen and heard, official circles have not yet got to grips with the implications of a free economy.


The official exchange rate for the Syrian pound is 50SP to the US$1.  However, on the black market and in Lebanon the rate is rising and now stands at 53SP/US$1.  This coupled with price controls means that the price of goods is not realistic.  Fruit is as expensive as it is in Spain, and of poorer quality, despite the fact that salaries are much lower. In my opinion, a more realistic level for the currency would be 150SP/US$1.  However, such a level would knock many businesses on the head and I would suspect that the government will not take such an unpalatable step.  Only when the currency can be floated on the free market will it reach a realistic level.  Meanwhile, some people make vast sums of money, and you have to fight your way through banks of Mercedes 600 motorcars (which are officially frowned upon as a luxury item) to get to the front door of companies.  The government imposes a 350% tax on cars but even such penalization does not seem to deter or break the bank of a large number of extremely wealthy people for whom liberalization will probably mean no hardship - indeed it may even be a blessing - because they will have their money safely stashed away outside the country in US dollars thus safeguarding their capital.

Plus ça change plus c’est la même chose!

May 4 1998